With 25 games in we are finally able to use possession metrics to get a sense of how the Wings stack up to the rest of the league. Looking at Score-Adjusted Corsi, the Red Wing’s 53.2% is good for 7th best in the NHL and 4th best in the Eastern Conference. I was also particular impressed with their possession numbers when up by a goal. In post game interviews Babcock has repeatedly mention he wants the Wings to not sit back after taking a lead. The message seems to have gotten through as the Wings have the 4th best CF% when up by a goal, 49.8%. The team defense continues to be superb as the Red Wings are the best team in the NHL at preventing Corsi attempts against. That said this still comes at the sacrifice of the offense, and they are currently at 5th worst in the league at generating Corsi for. I still find it surprising that they play such a low event hockey due to the speed of their counterattack.
Up front, Datsyuk, Z, and Abdelkader continue to drive the bus, taking on the toughest competition and still coming out with a positive relative Corsi. Much of this is helped by the play of the 4th line who have taken many of the defensive zone starts, allowing the top line and the kids to create offense. While the second/third line group of Helm, Jurco, Tatar and Sheahan continue to post good numbers, we could use more out of Franzen and Nyquist possession wise although I am willing to overlook Nyquists possession numbers if he continues to score at this rate (which is unlikely).
The biggest story has been the success of the Power Play in recent weeks, rising the Wing’s percentage from 12.8% all the way to 22.8%, 6th best in the league. As I mentioned previously the Wings are now using the left side to spread out the D and open shooting lanes in the high slot. Even more encouraging is barring tactical changes by the opposition, they have the 5th best Fenwick per 60 number in the league suggesting the success is sustainable. While still good enough for 4th best in the league, the Red Wing’s PK has fallen to 86.2%. With the 7th best Fenwick against rate, this also seems like a sustainable success particularly now that the PK SV% have dropped to a more reasonable 87.88%
None of the Wing’s success can be discussed without mentioning the play of Jimmy Howard. While appearing to have returned to form after an injury plagued season, Jimmy’s even strength SV% is actually lower than last season. After controlling for the location of shots, Jimmy’s adjusted SV% drops all the way to 91.64% at even strength. With his history as an elite goaltender, combined with the improved play of the Red Wing defense, I still hold onto the belief that there is room for improvement. If Jimmy can return his SV% to numbers from past years, the Red Wings could become a nightmare for the opposition’s offense.
Two months in and most of the observations from Octobers seem to be coming true. The Power Play success has lead to a much needed increase in goals, while the team continues to play great defensively both at evens and when down a man. The Atlantic division is particularly tough right now as the Bruin’s return from injury and Toronto continues to defy their possession numbers. Despite the competition, the Wings seem destined for a playoff spot and most projections have them in a tight race with Boston for the 2nd seed. The team is clearly going through a youth movement as the kids continue to take the occasional night (like Tuesday vs Florida) off. However, this is somewhat inevitable and they should learn to be an “everydayer” as the season progresses leading to even more success for our Wings.
All numbers from nhl.com and war-on-ice.com
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