Rick Nash & Tomas Jurco: When a Slump Becomes Something More

Last year as the Rangers made a run to the Stanley Cup Finals, talk centered on the play of Rick Nash. Despite posting 26 goals during a 65 game regular season, he went 14 games without a goal to start the playoffs. As the slump continued, talk of a potential trade or even a buyout surrounded Nash. This talk only increased when the Rangers fell to the Kings by the slimmest of margins. With Nash only registering 3 goals in the 25 playoff games, at some point it became more than a simple slump.


As I began learning about advanced analytics in hockey, the first principal I had to understand was that the process is more important than results. Winning or losing depends partially on luck, something outside the control of the team. I can name at least 3 games this season where the Wings deserved to win but a bad bounce or bad call led to a loss. In a similar vein you recognize that slumps happen. Crosby is undoubtedly the best player in the world, and even he goes on extended scoring slumps. During the Rick Nash slump I continued to remind Ranger fans that he was playing exceptionally well and eventually he would get the bounces. Chris Boyle even went so far as to demonstrate that he was producing the same quality of shots, they just weren't going in. It is during these times that the Coach has to keep the guy going, letting him play through the slump until the goals come. However this put Alain Vigneault in a tough spot. The middle of the playoffs are not the time to let someone play through his problems, and as a result Nash's PP and EV ice time dropped to the lowest of his career. At this point the slump becomes a snowball rushing down the hill. Nash desperately needs to score to get his confidence back up, but the demotion decreases his confidence and gives him less chances in offensive situations. Now the slump has grown into a completely different monster. This is no longer a case of simply waiting it out, now Nash's play has actually changed and I lost confidence that the slump would ever end.

This brings us to Tomas Jurco, he of the single goal on 33 shots. Today we learned that the return of Datsyuk combined with Weiss' current scoring streak led to Jurco's demotion to the 4th line. We all recognize that Jurco has the potential to provide a true scoring threat to the 3rd line. Yet Babcock, for all his genius, isn't really giving Jurco a chance to find his scoring touch this season. So far only Cleary and Weiss have earned less ice time at even strength and now Weiss has taken a spot on the 3rd line and PP. I recognize at this point it becomes a bit of a numbers game and Babcock is choosing the lesser of 2 evils. With Abby's offensive improvements, there is a three way battle among Jurco Helm and Weiss. Babcock can only pick two despite all three players needing top 9 ice time to get their games back. Thus I do understand Babcock's decision, for the Wings to be elite they need to get Helm and Weiss going and there just isn't enough space for Jurco. However, if the goal is to get Jurco's offense going, he would be better suited to play with the Griffins and get in offensive situations. With the current demotion, don't expect the slump to end anytime soon, it has grown into something more.