With a couple days off there has been little to report on the Red Wings. We are 15 games in and I am pretty satisfied with the teams play at this point. While only 5th in the division, a single win would jump the Wings all the way to 3rd and put them only 3 points out of 1st. As discussed in my first month review, the possession numbers have also been very good suggesting this success should continue. The biggest improvements have been in their defensive play and in Jimmy Howard’s return to form. While my shot tracking project should shed some light on this going forward, for now I wanted to take a look at what has changed between this year and last on the defensive/Jimmy Howard front.
Just to clarify some of the statistics I’ll be using, War-on-ice.com
adjusts goaltender's save percentage based on their work load. This
graph explains their clarifications for the different shots. The goaltender’s adjusted save percentage is calculated based on an average number of shots from each of the three area and their save percentage in each of
the areas.
So the adjusted save percentage attempts to control for the quality
of shots against. For example, in both seasons Jimmy’s original SV% is lowered slightly when adjusted for shot quality, implying that the Red Wings do a better job than the
average team at eliminating difficult shots. Comparing the 2 seasons, we see
that at even strength Jimmy’s numbers are surprisingly lower this year despite seeing nearly four less shots per 60 minutes. Most of the drop
off comes from a slightly lower save percentage on the higher quality shots.
Now this becomes a tricky business, but notice that the high shots are
from two distinct areas and the medium shots are from five different areas.
While they are grouped together, there is a difference in the probability of a
shot from these locations going in. Thus, determining when the Red Wings are
giving up shots from may explain part of Jimmy’s drop off despite the eye-test
saying he has played particularly well this season.
Looking at the changes in where the team’s has given up shots this season (left) compared to last season (right) we see that the Red Wings have really shut down the slot,
but are giving up a large number of shots from directly in front of the crease. If we
assume the chances from the net front are more likely to go in, it makes more
sense now why Jimmy’s save percentage on high percentage shots is lower this
season. Getting more shots from the slot last season “boosted” his save
percentage, similar to how a large number of outside shots boosts an overall
save percentage. While it is a very minor difference, it may
explain the slight change we observe. Thinking about some of the goals
that have been given up so far this season, many were defensive meltdowns that left
players alone in front. Obviously, this is to be expected with such a young
squad early in the season, but it also explains why Jimmy’s numbers are not better
despite appearing to have improved his play.
Also discussed in the first month review, is Jimmy’s high overall
SV% being mostly the result of a great SV% when shorthanded. While the team’s PK
has been excellent so far this season, Jimmy SV% is just below 95% despite breaking 90% only once in his career. As a result, my initial reaction is that this number is bound to regress. Conducting the same analysis for Jimmy and the Wings when shorthanded, while Jimmy has done an exceptional job at stopping shots from the outside he's still due for some regression.
His higher save precutting comes despite the Wings giving up less shots from in close and far more from the medium and low percentage areas this season. This would appear to be great news for the PK, as the Wings should be happy to allow shots from the outside. However I would be slightly considered about the number of shots coming from the right of Jimmy Howard, his blocker side. This is where the shot tracking project should provide some context that is not shown here. For their analysis, shots from just above the faceoff dots are considered a low quality shot. Which in even strength play is generally true. However since most teams now employ an umbrella or 1-3-1 Power Play that is where the team's elite snipers (Ovi, Giroux and Stamkos for example) like to set up for one-time opportunities. While the right side is particularly troubling since it forces Jimmy to push across and stop a one-timer with his blocker rather than his glove, the Red Wings have given up more than double the league average from that location. Thinking of the Washington game, Ovechkin had many chances to score from that spot but couldn't hit the net. For that reason, while I am excited by their work in front of the net on the PK, I still don't see them keeping up this success rate.
Just a reminder that we are still only 15 games into the season. While we are starting to get a solid picture about what is going on, these are by no means solid conclusions. At this point what I'm demonstrating are slight trends at best, and may be nothing more than random variations. Regardless
Jimmy Howard has played exceptionally well and has kept the Red Wings in games and stolen
some points already this year. Ideally the Red Wing's clean up some of those defensive miscues both at even strength and the PK and continue to rack up the points as we head into the meat of the season.
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