Due to the small sample size, the best possession metrics, Corsi/Fenwick close are less reliable at this point in the season. Thankfully we can use Score Adjusted Fenwick, which takes the possession in all minutes and adjusts it based on score effects (the idea that you have more possession when you're losing). Currently the Red Wings sit at 52.36%, good for 10th in the league according to http://fenwick-stats.com. I am slightly troubled by their 48.3% mark when the game is tied, hopefully this is just a small sample size issue. As expected having faced a tough first month, their opponents have averaged a 50.76% which would be good for 14th best in the league. Digging a little deeper, the possession numbers are mostly the result of stellar team defense, keeping teams to only 45.84 Shot attempts per game, 4th best in the league. Unfortunately this defense has come at the cost of the offense, as the Red Wings have managed only 51.27 shot attempts per game, 7th worst in the league. It is interesting to note that despite the Red Wing's team speed and the observed fast pace of their games this season, only the experts of boring hockey the New Jersey Devils, have seen less events per game. Could this be the result of a new team defensive system aimed at protecting our mediocre defensive core?
Looking at the Red Wing's usage chart from war-on-ice.com we can see a bit what Babcock has been thinking behind the bench. The 4th line has basically been thrown to the wolves, asked to play most of their shifts in the D-zone albeit against middling competition. This allows the high scoring first line of 13/40/8 to play the tougher competition but start in the offensive end. The young guys, Jurco and Nestrasil have also been sheltered from the opposition's top guys, possible only because the 2nd line group of Tatar, Nyquist, Sheahan and Helm have done relatively well in the tougher minutes. If the young duo continues to be sheltered they will really need to put in some offense or be at risk of losing their lineup spot. With Franzen set to return tomorrow, the new lineup should answer this question. Both the 2nd and 3rd lines seems to have come on lately generating more chances, Tatar even managed to get one last night. Hopefully it will only take one to give them a spark and take some of the offensive load off Pavel and Z. The d-core is a bit as expected, Kindl is sheltered very heavily, but to his credit he has done well. The other five have all somewhat shared the top 4 minutes, with Smith getting a slight bump down thanks to his time with Kindl. While Quincey has done decently and Smith continues to be a Corsi superstar, we need more from Kronwall, Big E and DeKeyser if the winning is to continue.
On to the specialty teams. Last night's two PP goal effort actually boosted the PP up to 12.8%, still only 24th in the league. Thankfully the PK continues to be stellar at 94.1%, tops in the league. As I described here, the PP struggled early as teams forced the Red Wings into bad positions. Without a right handed shot forcing the defense to respect the one-time opportunity, defenders overloaded the strong side making it very difficult to make plays or get shots. Thankfully the return of Pavel Datsyuk can do wonders for any team's PP. Now with Pavel and Z on opposite sides the Red Wings are able to move the puck side to side, creating shooting lanes as well as passing lanes into the slot like on Nyquist's first goal last night. Interestingly, although the Red Wings slow things down at even strength, when down a man their aggressive penalty killing has led to the 11th best team when it comes to generating shots shorthanded. The unfortunate news is that their shot attempt against numbers when down a man are middling compared to their stellar percentage. The goals against have stayed down only thanks to their goaltender's incredible 95.74 Sv%, which seems unlikely to continue.
Speaking of the goaltenders, Jimmy Howard seems to have returned to form after an injury-plagued season. He is currently sporting a 92.89 SV% which places him inside the top 10 of goalies with at least 200 minutes played. While his 5th best SV% when shorthanded is due to drop, Jimmy has been playing well enough to stake his claim as one of the top goaltenders in the game. On the other side, Monster has done relatively well in his 2 games played, posting a 93.48 Sv%, mostly thanks to his shutout against Toronto. The eye test says he hasn't been particularly great, against Toronto I felt he put a lot of rebounds into play that could have cost the Wings. While he can't really be faulted for the first two goals against Philly, and Schenn made a great play on the 3rd I think he could have pulled that one in and given the Wings a chance at a win. Regardless I have splitting hairs, both have done the job to this point and while both will see a slight drop, Monster more than Howard, there is no reason to expect anything significantly different.
So far the numbers seem to suggest that the Red Wings are, as most of us suspected, a legit playoff team. The penalty killing numbers are due to drop, but hopefully this will be buoyed by a slight rise on the power-play. The Red Wings have played stellar defensive hockey so far this season, the great team defense has taken the pressure off the d-core that worried us going into the season. With this new attention to defense we must recognize that this team is not the high flying offense that won the cup years ago. At this rate everyone must recognize the Wings are far more likely to lead the league in fewest goals against then goals for. Unfortunately the young kids will continue to make defensive lapses and the Wings may be unable to outscore their mistake every night. However I expect the lapses to decrease as the season goes along and the d-core to improve their play allowing the Wings to open it up a bit more. As long as they score more than the opposition I don't think we should worry about how. The Wings are sitting pretty near the top of the standings, and seem to be in good shape heading into the next month.
No comments:
Post a Comment