Predicting the Eastern Conference Standings

Last week I did a rough prediction of what I thought the Atlantic division would look like next season. This time I wanted to have a few more numbers backing up my predictions and look at the entire Eastern Conference.
I am going to make an estimate of each team’s shots for and against based on last year's numbers as well as the offseason acquisitions. From this an estimation for the team SH% and SV% will predict the goal differential for the season. I will assume that the team's shooting percentage will be the league average and for SV% I will use each goalie’s career save percentage and assume starters play 60 games per season unless otherwise noted. Once we have this goal differential, we can use a regression equation to predict the points. The equation is points = 0.3415 x (goal differential)+91.447, which was determined to have an r^2 of .9.

Boston-117

Boston made very few changes this offseason so the possession numbers should stay the same. The loss of Iginla might have a slight decrease on their shooting percentage, which was the 4^th highest in the league but they are due for regression regardless. In net, Tuukka Rask is still a rock although they did see a change as Niklas Svedberg was handed the back-up job. With a career .918 AHL SV% we can predict about a .910 SV% for Svedberg in the NHL.

Prediction: GF-232, GA-185, PTS- 108

Pit-109

Pittsburgh saw a great deal of turnover, and with a new coach they are incredibly difficult to predict. What little information we do have regarding Mark Johnston shows a tendency towards playing an up-tempo offensive game asking the defense to move the puck quickly. While they will miss Neal’s offense, Crosby and Malkin still drive the bus up front and will have no Orpik and less Scuderi to weigh them down. As a result, I am predicting a slight uptick in FF% to around 51%. The Pens have be able to shoot above league average for the past few season so I will use 9.8% for this model.

Prediction: GF- 240 GA- 209 PTS- 102

TB-101

Tampa Bay is the winner of the offseason thus far, managing to upgrade both forward depth as well as the d core. While they managed a FF% of 51.7% at 5 on 5 score close, I expect that number to rise drastically with their upgrades. As a result, I’m predicting them to produce about on par with the elite teams in the Eastern Conference with a FF% of 53.9 at score close situations. Despite the recent transactions the biggest change will come between the pipes. Based on his career thus far, we can expect that Bishop’s true SV% at even strength to be about .924 +/- 8. This is a huge range and will have a huge impact on the Bolt's place in the standings. For simplicity, I will simply replace Bishop's .932 last season with .924 and assume league average numbers when shorthanded.

Prediction: GF- 232 GA-196 PTS-103

Montreal-100

The Habs made some small but excellent moves, adding Parenteau and Gilbert. Both should help the Canadiens control possession a touch more but it seems unlikely that there is a large improvement in that department. Combining this improvement with a major uptick in shooting percentage should improve Montreal's offensive production. However, Price should see a slight decline in SV% causing the team to fall back a bit.

Prediction: GF-214 GA-214 PTS- 92

NYR-96

The Rangers saw a great deal of change this offseason. Despite losing some major pieces, Glen Sather did a great job of filling most of the hole. The biggest change will be on the back end, where Boyle won’t fully replace Stralman’s possession numbers. Regardless, while Stralman will be a big loss the Rangers will have a full season under AV’s system. The net result is a minimal difference in the Ranger’s possession numbers for next season. The biggest change is what should be a big bounce back year for the Ranger’s shooting percentage.

Prediction: GF- 242 GA-199  PTS-106

Philly-94

Philly is the one team that should see a major drop off next season. With no major transactions, there is no reason to believe that they will see an improvement in possession. However, they will most likely be victims of regression to the mean. They had an above average shooting percentage and saw a career year from Steve Mason. If both of those numbers go back to their respective averages, the Flyers will be in trouble.

Prediction: GF-221 GA-232 PTS- 88

Columbus-93

Columbus made a big deal to get Hartnell, however any big improvement will come because of the development for the young players. The biggest question will be if Bob can continue his success for another year. He has posted two consecutive seasons with a save percentage above his career average. If he continues this trend it will make the difference between the Jackets making the playoffs again or sitting on the outside.

Prediction: GF-216 GA-218 PTS-91

Detroit-93

As a Red Wing’s fan, I am somewhat optimistic regarding the possibilities for Detroit next season. The biggest reason for optimism is the potential to see a healthy Wings team this season. It has been shown that a star player can improve Corsi by about 2%, thus with the return of Datsyuk and Zetterberg there is no reason to think the Wings can’t return to possession numbers to 52.5%. The goaltending will be a bit of a mixed bag as Jimmy should see around 60 starts, but the Monster should regress a bit.

Prediction: GF-227 GA-202 PTS-100

Washington-90

Washington spent big money this offseason in an attempt to upgrade their defense. However, the signing of Orpik fails to do that, and it will be up to Barry Trotz to hide his deficiencies. The big difference in this squad will come from Trotz’s system. Although often labeled a defensive coach in Nashville, he has never had the weapons at his disposal in Washington. I don’t expect the Capitals to become a possession juggernaut, but something closer to 50% should be in order.

Prediction: GF-230 GA-220 PTS-95

NJ-88

New Jersey seemed to have really pissed off lady luck last season. Going 0-13 in the shootouts cost them a shot at the playoffs, although they didn’t help themselves by playing Brodeur over Schneider. They continue to dominate possession and with the improvements in net they should be in the hunt for the playoffs. With no backup goalie on the roster yet, I will assume a SV% of .907.

Predcition: GF-196 GA-167 PTS-101

Ottawa-88

The Sens lost Jason Spezza this offseason, which should slightly hurt their possession numbers. However, as long as Paul MacLean is behind the bench they should have solid numbers and are due for a bit of a percentage bounce back. Craig Anderson and Robin Lehner both had below average season last year and should be slightly better this upcoming season

Prediction: GF-237 GA-242 PTS- 90

Toronto-84

Toronto made some great depth signings, but as I mentioned in the last post the possession numbers will depend on Carlyle. I see little reason to believe he will change this season and as a result expect the Leaf's SF% to stay the same. They have been able to shoot higher than league average for the last few seasons, so I will use 9.3%, the difference between last season and the league average. I also expected a 60/40 split between Bernier and Reimer.

Prediction: GF-213 GA-245 PTS-81

Carolina-83

The Hurricanes had a tough season, particularly between the pipes. As Peters is another member of the Babcock coaching tree it is expected that he is well versed in possession. The result is the expectation for a slight uptick in possession for the Canes, I’m predicting about 51%. They have had a tendency to shoot a below average number, so I will use 8.5% for the projection. They will really need a bounce back season from Cam Ward for any hope of being in contention.

Prediction: GF-221 GA-222 PTS-91

NYI- 79

The Islanders were another team who made major moves this offseason. With the additions of Grabovski and Kulemin, as well as a full season of John Tavares they should see a boost in possession numbers to around the 51% mark. The biggest difference will be in net, where they replace Nabokov with the consistently solid Halak. Just that single change could drop their goals against by almost 50 goals.

Prediction: GF-227 GA-208 PTS-98

Florida-66

The Panthers are a team clearly still in rebuilding mode, however the kids may be ready to make the jump to be slightly more competitive next season. This development as well as their improvements in free agency should push the Panthers to a 50% possession team next season. This is another team that has a tendency to shoot below league average so I will use 7.9%.

Prediction: GF-198 GA-209 PTS-88

Buffalo-52

The Sabres should be once again in the battle for the first round draft pick. I see no reason for their possession numbers to improve. They also should be expect to shoot lower than league average, to be generous I used 7.9% which was between league average and their average last season. In net, I assume Neuvirth starts 60% of the time while Enroth takes the other 40%.

Prediction: GF-170 GA-250 PTS-64

FINAL STANDINGS

Boston Bruins	107.6242486
New York Rangers	106.2312682
Tampa Bay Lightning	103.8371972
Pittsburgh Penguins	102.201518
New Jersey Devils	101.2287644
Detroit Red Wings	99.91915445
New York Islanders	97.8874649
Washington Capitals	94.73030306
Montréal Canadiens	91.62063702
Carolina Hurricanes	91.10491945
Columbus Blue Jackets	90.85792139
Ottawa Senators	89.5909606
Philadelphia Flyers	87.83833564
Florida Panthers	87.5467285
Toronto Maple Leafs	80.572274
Buffalo Sabres	64.2646245

Before finishing, I should acknowledge the limitations of my current predictions. I made countless assumptions, many based on limited statistical analysis. As a result, I highly doubt the final standings resemble the standings I have just derived, this was an inherent flaw in the model. The predicted standings have a mean of 93.6 points with a standard deviation of 10.9, while last season saw a mean of 89.6 points and a standard deviation of 15. My model will inevitably have a lower level of variability than the true standings based on the assumptions. By keeping all of the percentages at league average or career average levels I am eliminating the largest sources of variation. What you see above is a rough estimate of what the standings would look like if every team performed exactly as expected. The variation comes from Ben Bishop coming out of nowhere to win a Vezina, John Tavares missing the season or Craig Anderson coming back to Earth after a breakout year. All of these things have major impact on their team’s success and causes ripples throughout the league. In April the standings will most likely resemble nothing like what I have presented before you. This should be used as a starting point, nothing else. As the season progresses the numbers will fluctuate wildly from their averages, resulting in drastically different standings and the drama that we all love.