August 7, 2014

The Power of 13 & 40

As a Red Wing’s fan, my optimism for next season surrounds the possibility of seeing Datsyuk and Zetterberg back together again. Limited to only 45 games each, I was interested to see what exactly we should expect with those two back together. 
After eliminating all games where either player was injured we were left with only 28 games with both stars playing together. Once I split the data sets I compiled the possession numbers for both set of games in 5-5 close situations.
  

While the goal numbers are eerily similar, the differences in possession numbers are striking. With 13 and 40 in the lineup the Red Wings ranked 8th in FF%, without either the Wings drop to 15th. Now I will use the same model as my Eastern Conference predictions using the league average 7.66 SH% and Jimmy Howard’s career average 5-5 close SV% of .927 and changing the regression for 5-5 Close goal differential.


SF
SA
GF
GA
GD
EXP Points
With
1279
1222
98
89
+9
98
W/O
1164
1205
89
88
+1
93

I determined the new regression to be Expected Points = 0.6266(5-5 Close GD) + 92.044 with an R² = 0.71109 (previous regression had R² of .9). While the regression is by no means fool proof and is based on a small (28 games) sample, 98 points would have made us 5th in the East a single game shy of playing Tampa Bay in the first round. Meanwhile 93 points was exactly where we ended up, having to face the Bruins in the first round.


Anyone who has seen them play knows that the Red Wings are an entirely different team with Datsyuk and Zetterberg in the lineup. They are able to take the tough minutes and still dominate, allowing other players to succeed further down the lineup. Hopefully, they are both able to return to full strength next season so they can push the Red Wing’s back into the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference.

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