As a Red Wing’s fan, my optimism for next season surrounds
the possibility of seeing Datsyuk and Zetterberg back together again. Limited
to only 45 games each, I was interested to see what exactly we should expect
with those two back together.
After eliminating all games where either player was injured we were left with only 28 games with both stars playing together. Once I split the data sets I compiled the possession numbers for both set of games in 5-5 close situations.
After eliminating all games where either player was injured we were left with only 28 games with both stars playing together. Once I split the data sets I compiled the possession numbers for both set of games in 5-5 close situations.
While the goal numbers are eerily similar, the differences
in possession numbers are striking. With 13 and 40 in the lineup the Red Wings
ranked 8th in FF%, without either the Wings drop to 15th.
Now I will use the same model as my Eastern Conference predictions using the
league average 7.66 SH% and Jimmy Howard’s career average 5-5 close SV% of .927
and changing the regression for 5-5 Close goal differential.
SF
|
SA
|
GF
|
GA
|
GD
|
EXP Points
|
|
With
|
1279
|
1222
|
98
|
89
|
+9
|
98
|
W/O
|
1164
|
1205
|
89
|
88
|
+1
|
93
|
I determined the new
regression to be Expected Points = 0.6266(5-5 Close GD) + 92.044 with an R² =
0.71109 (previous regression had R² of .9). While the regression is by no means
fool proof and is based on a small (28 games) sample, 98 points would have made us 5th in the East a single
game shy of playing Tampa Bay in the first round. Meanwhile 93 points was
exactly where we ended up, having to face the Bruins in the first round.
Anyone who has seen
them play knows that the Red Wings are an entirely different team with Datsyuk
and Zetterberg in the lineup. They are able to take the tough minutes and
still dominate, allowing other players to succeed further down the
lineup. Hopefully, they are both able to return to full strength next season so
they can push the Red Wing’s back into the upper echelon of the Eastern
Conference.
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