Offseason in the Atlantic

Now that all the major off season moves have been accounted for, lets make an early prediction at how the Red Wings and each of it's division rivals will fare.


Boston- 117 points
Boston mostly stayed put this off season, the loss of Jarome Iginla is unfortunate but with 8 NHL caliber dmen, they may be able to find a replacement if Eriksson or Smith are unable to fill the void. It will be interesting to see how they work the roster as they have major salary cap problems due to bonuses from last season. However, Bergeron, Rask and Chara are still one of the best trios is hockey so there is little chance of this team dropping too far. Using The Pythagorean Win Expectation, Boston actually got slightly unlucky last year, as they should have expected 57 wins instead of their 54, although this could be explained by their 3-6 record in the shootout. With their outstanding possession numbers (54.1 FF%) there is no reason to believe this team will not still be fighting for the number one seed in the division come April.
Prediction:120-105 points

Tampa Bay- 101
Tampa Bay was declared by many the winners of the free agency period. Brian Boyle provides needed stability to the bottom 6, while Stralman and Garrison join Hedman to create an excellent defensive core. Drouin and Kucherov's offensive punch should give the Bolts a scary top 9 forward group. The possession numbers should increase based on these additions, which may be necessary as I am hesitant to believe the Bolts can recreate last season's percentage magic. If Bishop's SV% drops to league average (.915), the Bolts would give up an additional 17 goals next season, costing them roughly 6 points in the standings. Not to mention the team shot 9.5%, shooting the league average would result in 20 less goals up front, good for another 6 point drop. While the percentages should come back down to Earth, it should be mediated by the improvement in possession, making Tampa one of the teams to watch in the East.
Prediction: 110-95

Montreal-100
Monteal had a Cinderella run to the Conference Finals, mostly on the backs of P.K. Subban and Carey Price. While they did not make the headlines that Tampa did, Montreal's acquisitions of P.A. Parenteau and Tom Gilbert should pay big dividends. Montreal's possession numbers were pretty poor, buoyed only by the spectacular play of Carey Price. Montreal also had 3 more wins than would be expected based on both goal differential and shootout success, putting their expected point total at 94. Montreal is the one team in this division that I can't seem to put my finger on. With a very solid lineup top to bottom, it seems that only Therrien tactic's are keeping this team from posting a higher possession number. If he is open to changing his dump and chase system, they should be fighting for home ice again next season. On the other hand, if he sticks to his guns I could also see this team falling out of the playoffs.
Prediction:110-85

Detroit-93
As has been widely discussed the Wings made mostly lateral moves, resigning Cleary and Quincey while hoping Alfie has one more year in him. The goal differential and well noted failure in the shootout suggest the Wings were somewhat unlucky to manage only 93 points and should have been at least a few points higher, safely out of the 8 seed. While the off season was mostly quiet the Wings should field a very different lineup next season based on health alone. Jimmy Howard was limited to 51 games, Weiss 26 games, Z and Datsyuk only 45, and the list goes on and on. Despite the injuries the Wings managed to maintain a relatively strong FF% of 51.2% at score close, which leaves me optimistic they can increase their possession and their place in the standings provided they avoid the injury bug.
Prediction:105-95

Ottawa-88
Ottawa made a big splash this summer as the jettisoned Jason Spezza out to Dallas. No big stars remain on this squad outside Erik Karlsson and Bobby Ryan, but the offense is incredibly solid. The biggest impact will come from the play of Craig Anderson/Robin Lehner. If one or both can provide solid goaltending, this team should be competitive. However, with a penny pinching owner they lack the game changers needed to make a true run at the playoffs.
Prediction: 90-75

Toronto-84
Toronto seems to be in a similar situation as Montreal, tactics holding the roster hostage. Up front Toronto has elite talents on the wings in Phil Kessel and JVR, and supplemented the bottom 6 with some inexpensive off-season moves. On the back end, both Rielly and Gardiner have potential but Phaneuf seems to be past his prime. The key to the season lies in the net and behind the bench. If the current systems stays in place, the Leafs will depend on Bernier or Reimer to post exceptional numbers. That being said, the hiring of Kyle Dubas could signal a changing of the guard in Toronto and we could see a more puck possession style leading to a rise in the standings. Either way, the Leafs are lacking down the middle and on the back end, meaning they are far from a true playoff contender.
Prediction: 100-85

Florida-66
Florida seems to be Buffalo's future, young stars surrounded by some solid veteran talent. A full year of Roberto Luongo will be the biggest change for the Panthers and should keep them in every game. While I don't think this team is ready to make a huge jump just yet, they are on the verge of being a playoff contender in the East.
Prediction: 85-70

Buffalo-52
Buffalo made some nice moves, but they are far from winning anything at this point in the rebuild. They have a ton of nice young pieces, which would go great with Connor McDavid at the center. There is no reason for this team to compete next year, and one more year in the cellar may be exactly what they need before they attempt to climb up the ranks again.
Prediction: 65-55

Final Standings
Bruins-112.5
TB-102.5
Detroit-100
Montreal-97.5
Toronto-92.5
Ottawa-82.5
Florida-77
Buffalo-60