State of the Wings After July 1st

After making a draft day deal to move Datsyuk’s cap hit, Ken Holland had money to burn on July 1st. After accounting for the RFA deals, the Red Wings have about 14 million dollars they could use to upgrade the roster. Holland made a couple of moves and while he missed out on Stamkos on Thursday he also got lucky when a number of other players elected to go elsewhere. Once the dust settled and I had the opportunity to evaluate the team as currently constructed, I am not convinced that the Wings are better off now then they were one year ago today or even one week ago.

Holland made his first move before free agency opened, resigning Darren Helm to a 5 year deal worth 3.85 million dollars per year. My favoritism towards Helm makes me anything but an objective observer but I don't mind bringing Helm back. As a general rule you don’t want to pay for bottom six talent, particularly when you have multiple prospects who should be able to fill those roles. However Helm’s ability to drive play in the bottom six, penalty killing and general versatility is worth about 3.5 million dollars for two years. So while the cap hit is a little high it is within reason, the bigger problem is the length of the contract. Even if you think Helm is currently ahead of players like Jurco and AA, they will pass him very soon and then this contract will be a problem.

The next objective was attempting to replace Datsyuk, for that Holland inked Frans Nielsen to a 6-year deal at 5.25 million per year. Once again Holland gave a long-term deal to a player on the wrong side of 30, which is almost never a good idea. I like Nielsen as a player, he’s a solid middle six guy who can help out on special teams and his cap hit is pretty reasonable. However he is not a first line center and the team already has at least four middle six centers so Nielsen’s benefit is relatively minimal and for that the team has another contract that will soon be a problem.

After signing Nielsen I think most people assumed the Wings were done for the day, which made the signing of Thomas Vanek extremely surprising. At only 2.6 million dollars for one year, I thought this was an intelligent gamble by Holland. Vanek is effectively an older version of Teemu Pulkkinen in that they can score and help the power play but will not drive possession. I would have liked to see Teemu get another chance, but if the organization is not ready to do the same then Vanek is a nice addition.

After leaving us on a high note Ken Holland threw his high grade away by signing Steve Ott to a one year deal worth $800,000. This deal has zero upside, except for the fact that he can be buried in the AHL without hurting the salary cap. Steve Ott has no business being in the NHL and no business being in this team's lineup next season.

So after making one good gamble, two decent short-term moves and a waste of money the team will have 16 forwards and 9 defenders, which does not include the players on LTIR or Mantha and AA. The abundance of forwards suggests a trade for a defender may be in the works and that is definitely possible. However knowing this organization’s love of veterans I am also preparing myself for the possibility that they made these deals because Ken Holland is not particularly worried about the future and he believes they make the team better right now. With that in mind, I expect Russo, Sproul and Ouellet to compete for the final defensive roster spot, with the other two being exposed on waivers and hopefully sent to Grand Rapids. Up front I think Lorito will be sent down leaving Frk and Ott to compete for the final spot, with Frk probably being exposed to waivers and sent down. Because they don’t have to be exposed to waivers, Mantha and AA will start out in Grand Rapids and only be called up if injures create an opening in the top nine.

Vanek may be able to replace Richards but Nielsen is nowhere near capable of replacing Pavel Datsyuk. If the prospects had been allowed to take a larger role their development could take this team to another level. However with only Larkin in the lineup, it seems more likely that the continued decline of the veterans puts the playoff streak in jeopardy.

Ken Holland spent a lot of money and was unable to drastically improve the Red Wing’s roster. Now with months remaining before the start of the season he needs to make a move that can take this team from a fringe playoff team to something resembling a true Eastern Conference contender, if such a move even exists.