Although it has only been a few games, a quick look at the
NHL.com stats page shows six different rookies averaging at least a point per
game and seven with at least two goals. This list also does not even include
the uber-prospect Connor McDavid who has been excellent for the Edmonton
Oilers. I point this out to mention that many rookies are excelling early in
the season, not just Dylan Larkin. Although Larkin’s start is impressive, his
success is surprising considering his play in the World Championships a few
months ago. Although his performance was exceptional for a teenager, he was
only a solid depth player on a relatively poor United States team, now is a
dominant force on the Detroit Red Wing’s top line. Although I believe
everything the media says about his work ethic, I find it hard to believe this
improvement is solely due to his work over the summer. Instead, I believe there
are two factors that are leading to the heightened performance of Larkin and
the rest of the rookie class.
One of the biggest differences between young players and
veterans is how they train in the off-season. Players like Pavel Datsyuk or
Henrik Zetterbeg have guaranteed their spot on the team and are focusing on surviving
the long 82 games season and being ready for the playoffs. As a result, they
focus on flexibility and healing old injuries during the offseason and have
less of a need to build muscle. Young players, particularly rookies trying to
make NHL lineups, have almost the complete opposite goals in mind. Since they
are not fully developed, the young players still need to gain strength, and
their young bodies need less time to focus on healing and flexibility. After an
offseason of heavy lifting, rookies enter training camp at their maximum physical
capacity. Many people mentioned how Larkin was able to put on 10 pounds of
muscle this offseason, which has allowed him to physically compete alongside grown
men. But while he is at his most physical fit, veterans are still getting into
shape, a big advantage for the rookie.
The second reason rookies see more success early in the
season is that the intensity of the game is lower. It has been said that every
10 games the level of play in the NHL rises. The goal for players and teams in
the NHL is to win the Stanley Cup and they don’t award the cup until the spring.
As a result, teams and player plan practice so they play the best come March
and April. The last few seasons have see the Los Angeles Kings and Chicago
Blackhawks “coast” early in the season before flipping the switch in the spring
and winning a Stanley Cup. So while rookies are excelling early in the season,
this does not mean they will be able to raise their game as the rest of the
league does.
Larkin is still an elite prospect and is the framework
around which the future of the Detroit Red Wings will be build, but he is still
a teenager. As the season continues he will continue to lose muscle mass and it
is unlikely he will be able to maintain the same level of play as the intensity
of the games increase. On many teams, this is a non-issue and he would continue
to earn time lower in the lineup. However, on a team with an abundance of offensive
talent, and a tendency to over-develop players in the AHL any decline could get
him sent back to Grand Rapids. While this would be unfortunate because Dylan
Larkin is incredibly fun to watch, it will not hurt his development to spend a
few months in the AHL. Even if Larkin’s play does slip down the stretch and he
is sent to GR he will still become a superstar and will lead the Wings into the
playoffs for many seasons to come.
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