October 15, 2015

Dylan Larkin’s Play May Not Last…And That’s O.K.

Dylan Larkin is going to be a superstar in the NHL. Taken with only the 15th pick in the draft his improvements last year were remarkable. After dominating college hockey and the World Junior Championships, he made impressive showings in the World Championships and the AHL playoffs. This season he is starting on the top line in Detroit and, on occasion, has been the best Red Wing. In addition to scoring 4 points, he has been a dynamo on the ice and is making the rest of the Wings better. Although his start has vaulted Larkin into Calder consideration, I believe we need to manage our expectations as this strong start may begin to fade.


Although it has only been a few games, a quick look at the NHL.com stats page shows six different rookies averaging at least a point per game and seven with at least two goals. This list also does not even include the uber-prospect Connor McDavid who has been excellent for the Edmonton Oilers. I point this out to mention that many rookies are excelling early in the season, not just Dylan Larkin. Although Larkin’s start is impressive, his success is surprising considering his play in the World Championships a few months ago. Although his performance was exceptional for a teenager, he was only a solid depth player on a relatively poor United States team, now is a dominant force on the Detroit Red Wing’s top line. Although I believe everything the media says about his work ethic, I find it hard to believe this improvement is solely due to his work over the summer. Instead, I believe there are two factors that are leading to the heightened performance of Larkin and the rest of the rookie class.

One of the biggest differences between young players and veterans is how they train in the off-season. Players like Pavel Datsyuk or Henrik Zetterbeg have guaranteed their spot on the team and are focusing on surviving the long 82 games season and being ready for the playoffs. As a result, they focus on flexibility and healing old injuries during the offseason and have less of a need to build muscle. Young players, particularly rookies trying to make NHL lineups, have almost the complete opposite goals in mind. Since they are not fully developed, the young players still need to gain strength, and their young bodies need less time to focus on healing and flexibility. After an offseason of heavy lifting, rookies enter training camp at their maximum physical capacity. Many people mentioned how Larkin was able to put on 10 pounds of muscle this offseason, which has allowed him to physically compete alongside grown men. But while he is at his most physical fit, veterans are still getting into shape, a big advantage for the rookie.

The second reason rookies see more success early in the season is that the intensity of the game is lower. It has been said that every 10 games the level of play in the NHL rises. The goal for players and teams in the NHL is to win the Stanley Cup and they don’t award the cup until the spring. As a result, teams and player plan practice so they play the best come March and April. The last few seasons have see the Los Angeles Kings and Chicago Blackhawks “coast” early in the season before flipping the switch in the spring and winning a Stanley Cup. So while rookies are excelling early in the season, this does not mean they will be able to raise their game as the rest of the league does.


Larkin is still an elite prospect and is the framework around which the future of the Detroit Red Wings will be build, but he is still a teenager. As the season continues he will continue to lose muscle mass and it is unlikely he will be able to maintain the same level of play as the intensity of the games increase. On many teams, this is a non-issue and he would continue to earn time lower in the lineup. However, on a team with an abundance of offensive talent, and a tendency to over-develop players in the AHL any decline could get him sent back to Grand Rapids. While this would be unfortunate because Dylan Larkin is incredibly fun to watch, it will not hurt his development to spend a few months in the AHL. Even if Larkin’s play does slip down the stretch and he is sent to GR he will still become a superstar and will lead the Wings into the playoffs for many seasons to come.

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