Way Too Early 2016 Stanley Cup Betting Guide

Last night we saw the Chicago Blackhawks complete an incredibly 6 year run by winning their 3rd Stanley Cup in that time frame. But before they have even cleaned the confetti off the ice, bookies have started looking ahead to next season. Today the online gambling site Bovada released Stanley Cup odds for 2016.  This early on the odds are dictated more by recent media attention and popularity than true potential. As a result, there are a number of cases where the odds over and underestimate the team's potential to hoist the trophy next season. Using the team's current roster and expected off-season moves, I compared Bovada's odds to how I expect the team will do next season.

Sucker Bets

Chicago Blackhawks             7/1
Anaheim Ducks                   10/1
Montreal Canadiens            14/1

They will be the defending champions and that is the only reason this number is so low. The Hawks have a ton of work to do this offseason and unless they have some magic left, I would not consider them the favorites. Similarly, although the Ducks will be in contention next year this seems a little high for me. They gave the Hawks a great run but they had a very easy first two rounds and I am not convinced they make it to the Conference Finals without that luxury. Montreal had a great regular season thanks to Carey Price, but unless he is able to repeat his superhuman performance or they change tactics, I don't see the Habs taking down the favorites in the East.

Put Money Down

New York Rangers                8/1
St. Louis Blues                   12/1
Tampa Bay Lightning          12/1

These teams were all favorites to start the season and have few changes to make this offseason in order to repeat their success. Assuming NY brings everyone back and tries to make another run there is a very high probability that the Eastern Conference final is a rematch between Tampa Bay and New York. St. Louis was knocked out in the first round once again, however they still have a team that many picked to win it all. With Chicago and LA in transition, if the goaltending is up to par, this could be the Blues' year.

Not Favorites but Good Odds

Nashville Predators            16/1
Washington Capitals           18/1
New York Islanders             22/1

All three of these teams had good showings in the playoffs this season and have every opportunity to be better next year. As currently constructed, these teams are a step below the above group, but with a few moves and some luck I could see them making a run. That possibility combined with odds over 15/1 is enough for me to consider putting down a small bet.

Too Early to Tell

Pittsburgh Penguins           14/1
Los Angeles Kings              14/1
Minnesota Wild                 14/1
Boston Bruins                    16/1

By October 1st, all four of these teams could be considered major cup contenders and these odds would be a steal. However, they also have some major work to do before we get there. For Pittsburgh, I need to see how they address their lack of offensive depth and what happens with the defense. In LA, they need to upgrade their D and that is dependent on Slava Voynov. Minnesota needs to resign Dubnyk and hope he can maintain his level of play. Finally, Boston needs to resign Dougie Hamilton and get support from their youth to help the quickly aging stars. If any of these teams accomplish these tasks I would put money down, but until then its too rich for me.

Long Shots

Detroit Red Wings             33/1
San Jose Sharks                 40/1
Dallas Stars                       66/1

I have a strong personal connection to all three of these teams so I may be a bit optimistic on their potential, but with these long odds, I would probably take the gamble. Detroit gave Tampa everything it could handle in round one and there is no reason to think they can't do the same after a few smart upgrades. Despite missing the playoffs, San Jose is only a year removed from taking the Stanley Cup Champs to game 7. Management has crippled this team in the past 12 months so I wouldn't put money down just yet, but they have the pieces to figure it out and get back into contention. Dallas was a popular dark horse pick this season, until poor defending and even worse goaltending torpedoed their efforts. However, with the influx of young D, this team was impressive down the stretch and next year they should reach the high expectations played upon them.

Maybe In a Year or Two

Winnipeg Jets                    25/1
Columbus Blue Jackets       33/1
Edmonton Oilers                33/1
Ottawa Senators                50/1

All of them are young and should see huge improvements next season. But while I could see any of these teams getting into the playoffs and making some noise, I don't think they are capable of winning it all just yet.

No Chance

Vancouver Canucks            40/1
Calgary Flames                  40/1  
Colorado Avalanche           66/1
New Jersey Devils             66/1
Philadelphia Flyers            66/1
Toronto Maple Leafs          66/1
Florida Panthers                75/1
Buffalo Sabres                 100/1
Carolina Hurricanes         100/1
Arizona Coyotes               100/1

All of these teams are currently either in a rebuilding process or need major pieces to be a Cup contender. Florida and Philadelphia seems very undervalued here as they are significantly better than the teams around them but I see them fighting to make the playoffs, not hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup.