The Fancy Stats
Tampa Bay and Detroit have been exceptional teams all season when it comes to possessing the puck. For the season, Tampa Bay has controlled 53.8% of play based on Score-Adjusted Fenwick For (SAFF%), behind only the Islanders and Kings. However, like Detroit, the Bolt’s play has slipped as of late and SAFF% dropped to 51.3% in the last 25 games, only slightly above Detroit’s 51%. In addition to their ability to possess the puck, Tampa has led the league in offense thanks to a high PDO (100.8) driven by a league leading even strength shooting percentage (9.3%). Now for most teams this would suggest that Tampa’s offense is due to cool down. However when looking at Tampa’s hextally chart we may see why the offense is able to produce such results.
This chart shows the number of shots taken by Tampa Bay in each of the three different areas on the ice. As you can see by the red in the chart on the left, the Bolts are exceptional at generating shots from “the house.” This area from the crease out to the dots and up to the top of the circles is often the area used to designate scoring chances. Since these shots are closer to the net, they are more likely to beat the goalie, thus Tampa's ability to generate shots in these location could be the major driving force behind the high shooting percentage.
Considering the team’s talent it is puzzling that Tampa Bay has been ridiculously bad on the Power Play, generating less unblocked shot attempts per 60 minutes of power play time then every other team, including the Buffalo Sabres. Although the Power Play has improved slightly in the last 25 games, they still generate far less shots than the Red Wings on the man advantage. Despite these troubles, Tampa has been able to maintain a league average success rate thanks to Stamkos’ shooting ability and the team’s elite passers. However, the elite talent may not be enough to carry the team, particularly if Detroit’s penalty killing returns to their early season form. Tampa has shown similar struggles on the penalty kill, as they are 20th in preventing shot attempts when a man down. However they have shown improvement as of late and have maintained a league average number over the last 25 games.
This year Tampa Bay will be able to lean on their starting goaltender Ben Bishop come playoff time after an injury forced him out of last season’s series against Montreal. Somewhat expected, Bishop has seen a bit of regression after his Vezina caliber season. After posting an impressive .924 SV% last season he has dropped back to a league average .916. This drop is mostly the result of even strength play, in which Tampa’s defensive injuries play a part. While his pure save percentage at even strength ranks him 27th among all goaltenders with 1500 minutes played, when taking into account the location of the shots his adjusted save percentage jumps up to a more respectable 19th. While not the force he was last season, Bishop provides stable consistent goaltending and will not cost Tampa any games, particularly if the defense returns from injury.
The fancy stats seem to conclude that Tampa Bay does indeed hold the edge due to their superior possession and ability to generate shots from the scoring areas. If there is any hope of Detroit advancing it will depend on the team’s ability to prevent Tampa from getting high quality shots and a dominating effort on special teams.
The Eye Test
Tampa Bay Depth Chart as of Monday morning skate
Palat-Johnson-Kucherov
Killorn-Stamkos-Callahan
Namestnikov-Filppula-Paquette
Drouin/Brown-Boyle-Morrow
Stralman-Hedman
Nesterov- Coburn
Carle-Witkowski
Aptly named the triplets, while Johnson, Palat and Kucherov are typically shielded from the spotlight thanks to the star power of Steven Stamkos, this is Tampa’s best line and potentially the best line in the NHL. All three players are exceptionally fast, skilled and use top end passing to control the puck. This group is also very solid defensively and uses it’s speed to terrorize teams on the counterattack.
The true 2nd line is where we find the league’s 2nd best goal scorer in Steven Stamkos. Typically Stamkos centers Killorn and Callahan, which is reminiscent of the Zetterberg, Abdelkader and Cole line. Callahan and Killorn are expected to do the heavy lifting and “pull the piano” allowing Stamkos to get the puck in scoring areas.
The third line is home to ex-Red Wing Val Filppula. With the top two lines drawing the opposition’s attention Filp has been freed to play his stead two way game and chip in the occasional offense. While most teams can handle the opposition’s first two lines, this third line takes advantage of any team lacking scoring depth.
The fourth line is similar to the Wings’ current forth line. Big and hardworking these players get a number of defensive zone starts and time on the penalty kill. When Drouin is on the line they have the offensively ability to chip in the occasional point to keep the opposition honest.
On the back end the defense starts with what may be the best defensive pairing in hockey, Hedman and Stralman. Both exceptionally smart and skilled with the puck this pairing spends little time in their own end. Norris trophy contender Hedman often uses his top-end skating ability to join the rush and provide offense
The 2nd and 3rd pair pair will be Carle and Coburn and some combination of Tampa's young puck movers depending on injuries. Carle is an exceptional puck mover for the bottom pairs and while Coburn lacks offensive flair he takes care the defense responsibilities. While all of the young players are very skilled and able to exit the zone quickly Detroit could have success by working them down low.
As previously, mentioned Bishop has had some regression from last season and will be entering his first postseason, thus there is some potential for nerves to get the best of him. Bishop is at his best when he uses his massive size to take way the net and uses his elite puck handling to jump-start the Tampa Bay breakout. Despite his solid skating ability, like any goaltender Bishop can be exploited by teams who force him to move East to West. In addition, despite his size he has a tendency to crouch down below the cross bar and as a result the Red Wings have had success beating him high, particularly to the glove side.
Defensively Tampa’s forwards play similarly to Detroit, using their speed to track back, allowing the defenders to be aggressive at both blue lines. This forces teams to dump the puck into Tampa’s zone, giving the skilled defenders the opportunity to get out of the zone quickly and start the counterattack.
Offensively Tampa’s skilled players, particularly the triplets, are reminiscent of the Soviet Union teams of the 70s and 80s or Wings fans may remember the Russian 5 from the late 90s. The team’s puck possession comes not from grinding, cycling and winning battles along the wall but from constant flowing movement and passes into open space. The entire team, including the defenders, is very skilled at finding the dead zones in a defense and waiting for the pass. NHL.com recently did a piece on Stamkos’ ability to find open space however I would argue this talent can also be attributed to players throughout the lineup.
In Detroit’s game in Tampa Bay less than a month ago the Bolt’s first two goals were great examples of the team’s two best offensive weapons, active defenders and the ability to find open space in the slot.
On the first goal Tampa broke up a Red Wing play quickly raced into the counterattack. Palat used his speed to force the defender to turn his feet, before creating space with a Gretzky curl back up the wall.
With the defender beat, Cole is forced to help out on Palat. However Palat get the pass back up to the point allowing Hedman to fire one on Howard.
With Tampa Bay’s forwards all on the left side of the ice to provide puck support for Palat, ice has opened up on the right side of the slot. While Abdelkader watches this play develop, Stralman sneaks into this open space to finds the rebound and a wide open net to make it 1-0 Tampa.
Now on the 2nd goal we see Drouin again start the counter attack after the Nyquist turnover. Drouin uses his speed to push Kronwall back before cutting into the slot, opening up space for a drop pass for the rushing Hedman.
Now that the first two forwards have pushed the defender pack towards the crease, Hedman draws Pulkky over to him, opening up space in the slot. Rather than sitting back and covering Hedman’s empty spot on the blue line, Killorn jumps into this space.
Hedman gets the pass across and Killorn has time to turn and fire from right between the hash marks.
Offensively Tampa’s speed and skill put defenders into difficult situations. Once they beat the initial defender the team does an excellent job of waiting for switches. As we saw in the first goal as soon as the 2nd defender tries to disrupt the attack Tampa dishes the puck to the open man. With skilled passer and incredibly intelligent players the team gives defenders no chance to recover from an initial mistake. As a result, for Detroit to have success it will be vital that the team’s defenders are able to handle Tampa’s forwards 1-1. If Detroit defender can contain the initial attack it will prevent Tampa from creating the defensive chaos on which it thrives. Solid containment defense would not only prevent the Bolts from getting into the danger areas, it could create counter attacking opportunities as the Bolt’s defenders attempt to jump into the play.
Many people, including myself, picked Tampa Bay to win the East before the season began. With an extremely deep and talented forward group as well as a mobile puck moving blue line they seemed to have little weaknesses. However injuries to the blue line, regression from Ben Bishop and the lack of success on special team have created some holes in the Bolt's armor. While Detroit will still face an uphill battle a strong defensive effort as well as some success on the special teams could be enough for the Red Wings to squeak out a victory in what I expect to be an incredibly close and entertaining match up.
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