Monthly Review: Eastern Conference Rankings

As we approach the trade deadline, each and every team is forced to take a hard look in the mirror and determine where they stand in the league’s pecking order. For Ken Holland and the Detroit Red Wing this becomes a pleasant surprise. Caught in the middle of a “reload” the team has found itself near the top of the league’s standings. Despite trying to preserve their bright future, the aging stars have shown they are not done yet. With the kids improving and the old veterans holding on, do the Detroit Red Wings have a chance of winning it all?

The Wings had an impressive month of February, registering a 6-3-2 mark despite playing 9 games on the road against some of the league’s top competition. The team’s even-strength possession numbers remain among the top 10 thanks to their league leading shot attempt against numbers. The team is also in the top half of the league at generating shots on the power play and preventing shots on the penalty kill. With these impressive numbers, the Wings appear to be a legitimate contender but where do they stack up relative to the rest of the Eastern Conference. As of today, here is my ranking of the teams in the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

Tier V: Maybe a Round or Two

8. Washington Capitals

7. Boston Bruins

The two most likely wild card teams remain at the bottom of the rankings. There is potential for Ovi/Backstrom/Holtby or Bergeron/Chara/Rask to carry their teams for a round or two. However, the lack of depth on both squads makes it very unlikely they can survive to the finals.

Tier IV: Paper Tiger

6. Montreal Canadiens

Montreal is the team ranked furthest from their current spot in the standings. The team’s possession numbers have been pitiful all season but they have continued to collect wins thanks to Carey Price. While this formula has worked so far, I think they may have trouble come playoff time. When you are completely dependent on your goalie to drastically outplay the opposition, your team is in trouble.

Tier III: Realistic Chance

5. Pittsburgh Penguins

4. Detroit Red Wings

Pittsburgh has two of the top offensive talents in the game and an improved group of depth forwards. That said, the injury to Olli Maatta hurts what was a very solid d-core. If Fleury is on top of his game, I could see the Pens making a run all the way to the finals, but if he implodes they could be out in round one.

Tier II: New York, New York

3. New York Islanders

2. New York Rangers

These teams are the clear favorites in the Metropolitan division, however they both posses some major flaws. I had originally ranked the Rangers at 5^th due to their lack of quality defenders. However, after making the move to acquire Keith Yandle they have jumped all the way to the 2 spot. Speedy forwards and elite goaltending are the strengths of this team, although they lack elite skill down the middle, which could cost them when going up against the other teams in the top 5. The Islanders are the media’s Cinderella story after making the jump most advanced stats proponents expected. John Tavares continues to make a claim as one of the best forwards in the game, while the off season acquisitions o- Leddy, Boychuck and Halak have done wonders for the back end. The team has a deep group of forwards but their defense has struggled as of late and I have little confidence in Jack Capuano's ability to match wits with the league's top coaches.

Tier I: The Favorite

1. Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay was my favorite to start the year and they have done little to change my opinion. Up front Tampa Bay has an embarrassment of riches, as Steven Stamkos is on their 2^nd best line, ex-Red Wing Filppula centers the 3^rd and rookie Drouin can barely find time of the 4^th. Injuries have robbed them of defensive depth but they still have possession monster Anton Stralman and Norris contender Victor Hedman. Ben Bishop remains somewhat of a question mark in net as he regresses from his Vezina caliber season, but the team still has super rookie Andrei Vasilevskiy waiting in the wings. The biggest problem for this team could be the lack of playoff experience. While I generally believe talent trumps experience, thus still have the Bolts atop the east, many of the young players could be in for a surprise during their first run deep into the NHL playoffs.

As you can see, after looking at the competition I have the Red Wings as the 4^th best team in the East. Detroit has an incredibly deep group of forwards, an excellent goaltender and plays great team defense. However, there are two main obstacles for the Red Wings to overcome if they hope to win it all. First, despite the team’s effort and the recent play of Marchenko/Ouellet, teams have been able to exploit the Wing’s defenders. Although the team has been effective at preventing teams from entering the offensive zone, the Wings have struggled once the opposition has gained possession down low.

The second obstacle and the team’s biggest problem is their most likely opponent in the first round. Based on current projections from sportsclubstats.com there is a 65.6% chance the Red Wings play Tampa Bay, my top ranked team, in the first round. Even @IneffectiveMath, who incorporates possession numbers, says there is a 47.5% chance of the Red Wings playing Tampa Bay in the first round. While the Red Wings can compete with Tampa Bay it will be extremely challenging to play one of the league's best teams right off the bat.

Regardless of the first round opponent, the Red Wings remain fully in contention for the Eastern Conference crown. With Mike Babcock at the helm, this team will not go away easily. And while they remain just outside the top tier of contenders, with a little luck I could easily see this team representing the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Final.