Mid-Season Review

Halfway through the regular season, despite many pundits’ predictions the Red Wings are solidly the 3^rd best team in the Atlantic division. With a record of 22-10-9 the Wings are on pace for 106 points, easily safely in the playoffs. After taking into account a few more variables, @IneffectiveMath projects the Red Wings finishing closer to 100 points but still battling with Montreal for home ice in the 2 vs 3 matchup. Despite out current optimism, not long ago things weren't so great for the Wings, as at 6-5-4 record in December included 6 straight games without a win. However the Wings were still able to earn 4 points during that span to maintain their playoff positioning.

The Wings have succeeded on the strength of their defense and special teams. Despite ranking only 12th in offense with 2.8 goals per game, the Red Wings are 5^th best at preventing goals, giving up only 2.34 per game. However most of this goal differential has been driven by the specialty teams as the Wings have the 2^nd ranked PP (24.5%) and 4^th ranked PK (86.8%). At even-strength the Red Wings success seems to be sustainable, controlling possession at a rate of 54.2% (5^th best in the league) and a PDO of 99.8. However the PP may be due to slow down a bit as they are currently posting only the 11^th best CF% but the 4^th highest shooting percentage. The PK may be a little more sustainable as they are the 8^th best team at preventing shot attempts against.

Goaltending has been excellent for the Wings, with both Mrazek and Howard SV% ranking in the top 15 of all goaltenders with at least 400 minutes played. Howard's numbers are slightly higher at 92.09% compared to 91.93% for Mrazek. However Mrazek is having a tougher workload this far getting nearly 29 shots against per game as well as shots from tougher areas. As a result Mrazek's adjusted SV% is 92.44% compared to 91.64% for Howard. Either way both goaltenders have been exceptional this season behind the Wings stellar defensive system which provides both with an incredible amount of support as I explained here.

Looking at the usage chart, as we know the 4^th line has mostly been thrown into the defensive zone, allowing the top 3 lines to focus on the offense. Interestingly the Red Wings have a clear groupings among the top three units. Kronwall and Ericsson are mostly playing with Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Abdelkader are are responisble for playing against the opposition's best. On the other end Jurco, Sheahan and Weiss, along with the third pairing of Smith and Kindl/Ouellet, have the easiest usage and are more available to focus on generating offense. All of the Red Wings continue to dominate possession, with the exception of the 4^th line. which is expected based on their usage. Offensively Z and Datsyuk continue to lead the team in scoring with 36 and 30 points respectively. While Nyquist, Tatar, Abdelkader, Kronwall and Frazen have all chipped in at least 20 points as well. That being said, Abdelkader, Nyquist and Z may be due for a slump in the near future as each has a PDO over 101.5.

It has been an exceptional first half of the season for Detroit and I am equally optimistic about the future. Old age hasn't caught up to the veterans and the kids continue to improve. I still think the Wings have a move to make in order to unload Kindl and improve the defense. With a top-4 puck moving d-man the Wings could move from playoff contestant to serious Stanley Cup contender.