DeKeyser Gets a Raise

In my post on Brendan Smith I mentioned that despite DK being hailed by many as the future of the Red Wing blue-line it was clear that at least statistically, Smith was the superior player. Yesterday Ken Holland and DeKeyser were finally able to reach a contract agreement, 2 years for an average cap hit of 2.1875 million dollars. DeKeyser gets a raise, the Red Wings keep him as an RFA when the contract ends and both sides get to see how he develops. While it seems a big win for everyone involved, after striking out in free agency DeKeyser needs to make a big leap next season. The question then becomes how far is DK from becoming the legit top 4 Dman the Red Wings need?
The biggest problem with analyzing DK is simply the lack of games played. In his rookie season he managed only 13 games before breaking his thumb.

In the small sample, DK was clearly sheltered both in terms of zone starts and quality of competition and still saw a negative Corsi relative. Surprisingly, he performed better at generating Coris events than suppressing them, as he lead the team in Corsi For per 60 in his limited sample. Looking at his dCorsi, he did post a 2.388, suggesting he outplayed his poor circumstances. Coming into this season many, including myself, were interested to see how he would react to the increase in responsibilities.

With a massive increase in both defensive zone starts and competition, DeKeyser's Corsi plummeted. This step back seems to have come from an inability to get offense started, as his Corsi For per 60 dropped from the team lead of 60.45 events per 60 to 49.56 and his dCorsi For dropped from 1.134 to -7.762. Interestingly, a while back Winging It In Motown looked at Red Wing zone entries which may be a reason behind his offensive drop-off. The general idea is that carrying the puck into the offensive zone leads to more shots than dumping it in. Thankfully, Corey Sznajder has taken the summer and tracked these entries for every team in the NHL. While not yet completed, looking at the data he provided to WIIM (~49 games) we see a potential reason for why DK was unable to generate offense effectively. 

DeKeyser was only able to carry the puck into the zone on 10% of his entries, the lowest on the team.  For comparison sake, here is the same data for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Clearly we see that elite offensive d-men can reach into 40-50% range, same as 4th line forwards, while most D should settle around 20%. DeKeyser manages to finish lower than everyone on both the Wings and the Leafs. Without the ability to carry the puck in himself, he was forced to rely on his teammates. Unfortunately, his most common linemates were Quincey (16% of controlled entries), Abby (38%), Miller (38%) and Alfie (43%) who also struggled at entering the zone with control. Optimistically I will assume these numbers are the product of a poor situation than his personal doing. In his first full NHL season, matched with poor line mates DeKeyser could have been hesitant to force plays and his offensive ability will develop as his comfort increases.The other solution would be to pair DeKeyser and Smith, as I have routinely recommended, and simply let Smith carry the offense for the pairing as he managed a 47% carry-in rate, despite having nearly the same line mates as DeKeyser.

Defensively, DeKeyser seems to be somewhat of a question mark. While he clearly passes the eye test as a solid defender, at the surface level DeKeyser seemed to struggle, giving up 50.9 Corsi events per 60, worst on the Red Wings. Paradoxically, looking at some of the zone exit data for the Red Wings DeKeyser actually comes out on top.

Despite giving up the most shots, DeKeyser and Quincey were actually the best at successfully getting out of the zone. Since the pairing is able to get out of their own end successfully why are they unable to keep teams from piling shots on the net? The data suggest the pairing is somewhat successful at keeping teams from spending long stretches of time in the Red Wing's zone. As a result, the high Corsi Against number must come from one of two options,

A. The opposition has a greater number of entry opportunities

B. The opposition carries the puck into the zone on more of their entries

Part of the first explanation may come from their inability to create offense, "the best defense is a good offense" seems to apply. Since DK/Quincey/linemates are unable to carry the puck into the zone they can't create long stretches of offensive zone time. Since this leads to more one and done opportunities, the opposition has more chances to enter the Wing's zone and wrack up shots. 

The other potential explanation is the pairing allows the opposition to carry the puck in more often, creating more shots against than if they forced the opposition to dump the puck in. Looking at the % of carry in entries allowed while they are on the ice, we see evidence that this may be a Quincey problem as opposed to a DeKeyser problem.

The NZ Score is basically the player's FF% if all controlled and uncontrolled entries led to the same number of shots. The NZ Score relative is simply the difference between the individual's score and the score of the team when he was not on the ice. From this we see that DeKeyser actually had a positive score, meaning the team did better in the neutral zone when he was on the ice than when he wasn't. We also see that when DeKeyser was on the ice, the Red Wings allowed very few controlled entries against. Again once Corey has finished with all of the data we will be able to see how teams did when trying to enter on DeKeyser's side of the ice however comparing DeKeyser's positive relative score and Quincey's negative score leads me to believe Quincey may struggle in that aspect of the game. Similarly, by looking at DeKeyser's dCorsiAgainst, his number was -.328, (compared to a -7.762 dCorsi For) suggesting he gave up about the number of shots that would be expected in his circumstance. Thus I would lean toward believing the high CA/60 numbers are simply the result of playing in tough situations with poor linemates rather that a defensive deficiency. 

For now this quick analysis of DK gives me a sense of cautious optimism. DeKeyser clearly struggled to possess the puck last season, and particularly struggled to generate offense. Thankfully, he has the ability to exit the zone successfully, so another year of experience should increase his comfort carrying the puck into the offensive zone. Once his zone entry numbers increase he should see a corresponding increase in puck possession and hopefully he will start putting up numbers resembling a top-4 d-man. For now, the new contract give him the perfect 2 year window to show the Wings if he can make this change and become the future of the blue line that many expect him to be.