Reason for Optimism in the Big D

As I demonstrated when tracking the Red Wings goals last season, a large percentage of goals come from the generation of shots off the rush. This compliments nicely with the recent push from the analytics community to demonstrate the importance of winning the neutral zone battle. Thankfully, Corey Sznajder (@ShutdownLine) has been working to track entries for every game in the past season. Once all this info has been collected, I will analyze and post the data. However, he has been kind enough to share what information he currently has (~60%) and it has been published on a few sites around the web.

At the team level, on hockeyanalysis.com David Johnson looked at entry data in an attempt to predict the standings. First, he created NetCarryIn%Differential, a plus minus for carry ins and carry in against. 

Looking at the top of the chart there is at least some evidence that this is a necessary skill to succeed in the NHL. We even see Colorado and Anaheim ranking near the top, potentially an explanation for those team's success despite poor possession numbers. However, for our sake the most interesting aspect is the Red Wings finishing within the top five in this quasi shot quality measure. Not satisfied, Johnson went a step further and added this differential to the team’s CF% above 50% to account for shot quantity as well.

With an R^2 of .5078 between this measure and regulation winning percentage, although we cannot prove this is repeatable it seems that there is something here. Once again, the Red Wings rank near the top, despite their middling place in the final standings. When attempting to explain this dichotomy, two theories come to mind. The first and most obvious reason for Detroit’s mediocre place in the standings is Jimmy Howard’s down year. As demonstrated by my projections for this season, a return to form for Howard puts Detroit only 4 points out of home ice in the Atlantic. The other is the incredible run of injuries the Wings suffered through last season. Since this data only measures 60% of the season, it may not account for the games when the Red Wings missed Datsyuk and Zetterberg. While this would torpedo the Red Wing’s carry in percentage, it also decreases their shooting percentage as less skilled players are taking the shots. Thankfully, part of this question can be answered by the Red Wing’s individual carry in % which was broken down over at WingingitinMotown.

Now we see how the Red Wing’s standings would not line up with their carry in percentage. Datsyuk ranks among the league’s elite with this skill, while Zetterberg also comes in above average. Along with their elite defensive ability, it becomes clear that their injury would lead to a decrease in the Red Wing’s NetCarryin%Differential.

While this analysis is by no means complete, it does provide evidence that the Red Wings could return to contention in the Eastern Conference next season. A bounce back year for Jimmy Howard should cause the Red Wing’s goals against to decrease. Combined with a full season from Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Nyquist and Weiss, the Red Wings should be even better at gaining the opposition’s zone with possession. Improvement in these two areas should find the Red Wings in competition for home ice in the playoffs, rather than simply fighting to get in.