Red Wing Goals Against

Last time I took a look at every goal the Red Wings scored last season, this time I'm breaking down all the goals given up by the Red Wings. Since the amount of zone time prior to goals was consistent with other people's results I skipped those results and will take you directly to how teams scored against the Wings.

At even strength the Red Wings were able to finish more clean goals than the opposition. Without the shot or past years data it is hard to make any definitive conclusions, but I would hypothesize with the Red Wings elite snipers this is a trend rather than statistical noise. On the power play the smaller sample size would most likely make the results only variability. For example, the two biggest changes were in deflection and screen goals. Since these two are so closely related, deflected shots often hit the screening player rather than going by them, I am of the belief that these numbers will regress towards a mean next season.

From the beginning one of the more interesting aspects of this analysis was an attempt to compare Jimmy Howard and Jonas "The Monster" Gustavsson. Jimmy went through a bit of a down year as he seemed to continually playing catch up due to injuries. In his absence Monster made some big starts and appeared to my eye to be a quality backup. However, when looking at the box score numbers, Monster's big year managed only a .907 SV% compared to Jimmy Howard's .910% in a down year. Luckily this analysis partially explained why the numbers differ from what I see watching the game.

Immediately from this graph you see that a massive percentage of the Monster's goals come off of rebounds. This may start to explain the difference between what I see and what the numbers tell me. Similar to Jon Quick's trouble with transition goals, often the goaltender is excused for these types of goals. But just as Quick's aggressive style makes him more vulnerable to transition shots, Gustavsson poor rebound control gives the opposition more chances than a typical goaltender. This become even more clear when comparing the two goaltenders to the Red Wing's GF.

With the Red Wings goals for as comparison we see 2 clear patterns, Gustavsson struggled with rebound control while Jimmy Howard seems to struggle with screened shots. Since Jimmy's Howard is is only 6 feet tall it is common knowledge he struggles with traffic in front. Now we have stats to support this issue identified while watching the games, the eye test and fancy stats can coexist. Where Jimmy makes up for this deficiency is his ability to stop clean shots, dropping about 5% below the Red Wing's and the Monster's average. The only remaining result for which I have no answer is Monster's great numbers regarding transition opportunities. While his 6 foot 3 inch frame may provide part of the answer, I also wonder if the Red Wings are more aware defensively with Monster in the net. Knowing he is the backup goaltender, Babcock or the defenders may make a more concerned effort to deny lateral plays.

Going forward, I am hoping to track all Red Wing games this upcoming season, collecting the goal data as well as information for every shot. Hopefully with this larger sample size and each goaltenders SV% per type of shot, I can answer some of these remaining questions.