Don’t Give up on Brendan Smith

Just this morning Helene St. James analytical focus was on one of this website’s namesakes, Brendan Smith. After mentioning a few of Smith’s many attributes, chief among them his skill with the puck, she finishes the piece by discussing his potential trade value. Meanwhile, in the same analysis of Danny DeKeyser she finished by describing DK as “a building block for years to come.” Her attitude towards these two players seems to reflect that of most Red Wings fans. With the Wings struggling to find elite defenders, these two have been thrust into the spotlight. Watching from a distance, we see DK’s solid defensive game, and Smith’s tendency to create offensive for both the Wings and the opposition. As an admitted Smith fan, I am somewhat troubled by these perceptions.

(from stats.hockeyanalysis.com)

Contrary to popular opinion, statistically at least Smith is the superior player. After controlling for zone starts, in which Smith had a clear advantage, Smith still has a 52.8 FF% compared to 48.7% for DK. Despite playing with significantly weaker teammates, Smith also put up 1.08 P/60 minutes last season. For players with at least 500 minutes last season Smith ranks 17th, behind names such as Karlsson, Hedman, Byfuglien, Krug and Keith. In the same time frame, DK has managed only .870 P/60. Theoretically, what DK lacks in offensive ability he makes up for with his defensive play, limiting the opposition to only 12.940 Fenwick Attempts per 20 minutes. Yet, while facing only marginally easier competition and with worse teammates, the defensively deficient Brendan Smith limited the opposition to only 11.719 Fenwick Attempts per 20.

While the numbers are clearly in Smith’s favor, my main argument for Smith is based less in statistics than in personal experience. In my opinion, the transition for offensive defensemen is the most challenging in all of hockey. At Wisconsin and Grand Rapids, Smith’s skill and skating ability allowed him to create offense in any situation. When advancing to the next level, Smith must walk a delicate balance between using his offensive abilities and limiting costly turnovers. I hope to analyze this further later, but it seems anecdotally that this is a struggle for many elite offensive defensemen. Despite their unmatched skill, it took 135 games for Erik Karlsson and P.K. Subban to register breakout Norris Trophy seasons. Duncan Keith also took three full seasons before cracking even 40 points in the NHL. While not of the same ability of the aforementioned names, with only 119 NHL games in his career Smith may still be learning how to walk the line between creating offense for the Wings and creating offense for the opposition. While the turnovers will never completely disappear, with experience they will become less frequent. Meanwhile Smith will still provide the same game breaking offensive ability he has demonstrated on multiple occasions, an ability the Red Wings desperately need.