Jimmy Howard Does NOT Have A Rebound Problem

Recently, there has been a growing sentiment that Jimmy Howard struggles to control rebound. Despite being the Red Wings’ starting goaltender for six seasons, I had only recently noticed this complaint. Although past analysis found no such evidence for this claim, the critique gained momentum as Howard battled Mrazek for the starting role. Today the hockey community uncovered new evidence that may get us closer to evaluating the truth in this critique.

A little over a year ago, I tracked the goals scored and given up by the Red Wings during the 2013-2014 season (which you can find here, here and here). When looking at the goals surrendered by the Red Wings, a very large percentage of the goals scored on backup Jonas Gustavsson came off rebounds. In contrast, a higher percentage of Jimmy Howard’s goals came from screens and transition plays, which I reasoned could be due to his relatively short stature. When comparing the percentages to those scored by the Red Wings, the differences between the two goaltenders became even clearer. Gustavsson had a legitimate issue with his rebound control but there was no evidence that Howard struggled with this aspect of the game.

Fast forward 14 months and today Matt Cane posted a new article, How can we measure a goalie’srebound control? Examining Pekka Rinne and James Reimer, at hockey-graphs.com. While reading the article, I instinctively thought of the current complaints regarding Howard and was pleased to see that Matt was gracious enough to make his data publicly available.

Looking through the data, I focused on the statistic that Matt called Adjusted Rebound Percentage. In his words it is, “the total number of rebound shot attempts (shot attempts taken <= 2 seconds following a save) divided by the total number of saves minus the total number of frozen pucks.” In essence, it is the percentage of saves that result in a second shot by the opposition. By ranking the goaltenders by this statistic, I measured where Howard ranked against his peers.

Year	Adjusted Rebound %	Rank
2009-2010	3.99%	4/45 (91.1)
2010-2011	5.98%	30/42 (28.6)
2011-2012	5.48%	21/44 (52.2)
2012-2013	5.90%	14/25 (44)
2013-2014	5.78%	19/43 (55.8)
2014-2015	5.06%	13/46 (71.7)

As you can see, since 2011 Howard has been just about league average in not allowing saves to become rebounds. The initial counter argument to his would be that these strong numbers are due to Detroit defenders rather than Howard himself. To answer this claim we turn to the numbers in 2014-2015 and 2013-2014, the years Howard’s backup played enough to qualify for the sample.

Year	JH Adj. Reb %	JH Rank	Backup Adj. Reb %	Backup Rank
2013-2014	5.78%	19/43 (55.8)	6.59% (Monster)	29/43  (32.6)
2014-2015	5.06%	13/46 (71.7)	5.14% (Mrazek)	14/43 (67.4)

In the last two years, when I have noticed the greatest comments regarding Howard’s rebound control, Howard has given up fewer rebounds than either of his backups. While Howard was expectedly, much better than Gustavsson, he also slightly outperforms Mrazek as well. Unless you believe that the team plays differently depending on who is playing in net, which I do not believe, it appears that Howard is at least comparable to Mrazek. Although these numbers do not completely prove that Howard doesn’t have a problem, they suggest that his weakness is greatly over-rated.

Hockey and goaltending in particular, is incredibly difficult to judge. Only twenty goals mark the difference between an elite goaltending season and an average season. Although Howard may occasionally struggle with a particular rebound, we forget that all goaltenders struggle at times. However, it is much easier to remember a bad rebound that became a game-winning goal for the opposition than a shot Howard directed into the corner. This is a natural bias and affects every fan, scout and general manager. Thankfully, by using statistics such as these, we get closer to avoiding these biases and accurately measuring our team.